Thaum 10:00 Beijing lub sijhawm, Lavxias Thawj Tswj Hwm Vladimir Putin tau hais tias nws tau txiav txim siab ua tub rog tshwj xeeb hauv thaj av Donbas ntawm sab hnub tuaj Ukraine.Tam sim ntawd tom qab ntawd, kev tawg tau hnov hauv cheeb tsam Boryspil Tshav Dav Hlau hauv Kiev, lub nroog ntawm Ukraine, hauv Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkov, Kramatorsk thiab Berdyansk, ua cim rau Lavxias thiab European lub teb chaws hauv cheeb tsam European.Qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm ob lub teb chaws tau nce mus rau txhua txoj hauv kev.Tag nrho ntawm Ukraine yog nyob rau hauv lub xeev ntawm tsov rog.
Raws li lub sijhawm xovxwm, European natural gas benchmark price TTF tau nce mus txog 114 euros ib MWh.Dab tsi ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv loj npaum li cas yuav tshwm sim ntawm Russia-Ukraine xwm txheej coj mus rau kev lag luam hluav taws xob huv hauv tsev thiab txawv teb chaws, thiab nws yuav cuam tshuam li cas rau kev hloov pauv ib txwm muaj zog hauv kev lag luam photovoltaic thiab cua zog?Tam sim no, nws xav tias cov khoom siv raw ntawm qee cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic yuav nce, thiab qhov kev thov rau cua thiab hnub ci hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab lwm qhov chaw yuav nrawm dua.
Cov nqi roj tshwj xeeb yuav nce siab, lub peev xwm thauj khoom nruj thiab cov nqi tseem nyob siab
Qhov tseeb, Ukraine yog lub hauv paus ntawm cov roj tshwj xeeb rau kev tsim khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, yog li tom qab qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb no yuav cuam tshuam rau qhov tsis txaus ntawm qee cov roj hluav taws xob tshwj xeeb siv hauv semiconductors.Cov khoom lag luam semiconductor kuj tseem yog cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic xws li inverters.Puas yuav muaj kev tawm tsam yav tom ntej?
Ukraine muaj kev faib ua feem ntau ntawm neon, xenon, thiab krypton gas kev lag luam, thiab qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb yuav ua rau qee qhov chaw tsim hluav taws xob tshwj xeeb tsis tuaj yeem ua haujlwm lossis puas.
Ntau lub tuam txhab semiconductor tau hais tias vim tias cov roj tshwj xeeb feem ntau tau txais los ntawm ntau lub tebchaws, suav nrog Ukraine, tsis muaj cov khoom lag luam luv luv.Micron CEO Melotta tau hais hauv kev xam phaj tshwj xeeb nrog Bloomberg Xov Xwm tias ib feem ntawm cov roj tseem ceeb los ntawm Ukraine, tab sis cov khoom muag loj tau npaj, thiab qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, lub tuam txhab muaj ntau qhov chaw muab khoom, suav nrog Tebchaws Meskas, European Union thiab Asia.Nws ntseeg tias lub tuam txhab tseem ua tib zoo saib xyuas qhov xwm txheej thiab vam tias nws yuav yooj yim dua.SK Hynix kuj tau tshaj tawm tias nws tau khaws cov khoom lag luam loj ntawm cov pa roj tsis zoo, yog li tsis tas yuav txhawj xeeb ntau dhau.Tab sis thaum qhov kev thov tuaj yeem sib piv nrog cov khoom siv, nws tsis tuaj yeem zam tau tias qee cov pa roj carbon monoxide yuav pom tus nqi nce.Tus nqi ntawm neon, ib yam khoom, nce siab tom qab kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine hauv 2014, thaum tus nqi yog $ 3,500 ib lub cubic meter, ntau dua 10 npaug ntau dua li ua ntej.
Nrog rau qhov nce ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm ob lub teb chaws, tus nqi ntawm kub tau nce siab heev.Cov khoom siv tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv nyiaj ntau dua siv rau hauv lub hnub ci zog yog cov hmoov nyiaj, uas yog txuas nrog tus nqi London nyiaj.Tseem tsis tau muaj xov xwm ntawm qhov dav-raws li kev nce nqi ntawm cov nyiaj tsis tau.Yog li ntawd, nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, tsis muaj ib tug kos npe rau ntawm nyiaj paste nqi nce.
Yuav ua li cas cuam tshuam rau Russia-Ukraine xwm txheej muaj rau kev thauj mus los, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab?
Raws li cov neeg soj ntsuam Fang, cov nqi thauj khoom hiav txwv yuav nyob twj ywm siab.Hauv ob xyoos dhau los, tus nqi tau nce los ntawm 4, 5 zaug lossis ntau dua.Kev nce nqi roj tsis ntev los no tuaj yeem cuam tshuam qhov nce ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov roj diesel, cov khoom siv raw rau cov thawv thauj khoom, tab sis txawm tias tus tswv nkoj nce tus nqi ntawm qhov no, nws yuav tsis cuam tshuam rau tus nqi thauj khoom siab uas twb muaj lawm.Qhov kev txhawb nqa yuav tsis yog los ntawm ntau qhov ntsuas.Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi ntsuas ntawm lub thawv xa khoom yuav tsis poob rau lub sijhawm luv luv, tag nrho cov peev txheej thauj khoom yuav muaj zog ntxiv, thiab lub thawv xa khoom xa tuaj yuav nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej nruj.Ntawm qhov tod tes, vim muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm Omicron, kev sib kis hauv ntau lub tebchaws nyob sab Europe txuas ntxiv mus, thiab kev sib sau ntawm cov neeg mob tshiab tau khaws cov xwm txheej xa tawm mus rau theem siab, thiab kev ua lag luam rau kev xa khoom tau zoo heev.Hauv kev teb rau qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua tsov ua rog hauv zos, Tebchaws Europe tuaj yeem nce cov khoom khaws cia, yog li tsav tag nrho qhov kev thov rau ton-nautical mais kom nce.Ntawm tag nrho, lub peev xwm ntim yuav ntau dua hauv cov khoom siv luv luv, thiab qhov ua tau ntawm cov nqi hauv hiav txwv dhia dej tsis siab, thiab nws muaj peev xwm tswj tau qhov xwm txheej quo lossis txawm tias nce me ntsis.
Photovoltaic cua zog, thiab lwm yam., lub ntiaj teb no tauj dua tshiab zog transformation yog accelerating
Qhov pib ntawm qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua hauv zos ntawm Russia thiab Ukraine yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam zoo rau kev nrawm ntawm lub zog tshiab los hloov lub zog ib txwm muaj.Txhua hnub niaj hnub no, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab tau pom muaj qhov nce ntxiv.Zhongli Group, Sungrow, Trina Solar, Risen Zog, Foster, JinkoSolar, JA Technology, LONGi, GoodWe, Chint Electric, Zhonghuan, thiab Jolywood tag nrho sawv ntawm qhov ze.PV 50ETF tau nce 1.53%.
Cov nqi roj ntuj tau nce siab tsis ntev los no.Qhov no tsis yog xov xwm zoo rau thaj av European, qhov twg cov nqi roj av tau nce ze li plaub npaug hauv xyoo dhau los.Tam sim no, ib feem peb ntawm cov roj av hauv Tebchaws Europe los ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide, thiab geopolitics tau nthuav dav qhov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv dua.Raws li ntawm 4 teev tsaus ntuj hnub no, Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures nqi tau nce rau plaub zaug sib law liag, nce ntau npaum li 41% hauv ib hnub.Tsoomfwv Meskas Tus Thawj Kav Tebchaws Joe Biden kuj tau hais tias nws yuav siv kev rau txim ntxiv rau Russia.Ib qho kev rau txim txwv tsis pub Russia nkag mus rau kev sib pauv txawv teb chaws yuav txhawb nqa roj, roj thiab cov khoom lag luam xws li hlau thiab qoob loo.
Lub zos natural gas dependence nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe yog siab heev, mus txog 90%.Yog li ntawd, nyob rau lub sijhawm no thaum tus nqi ntawm cov pa roj ntsha tau nce siab, kev lag luam ntau dua, lub zog thiab cov cua sov cov neeg siv uas tau siv cov nkev ntuj yuav nrhiav kev nyab xeeb los daws lawv cov kev xav tau.Kev hloov cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tshiab xws li hnub ci zog yuav nrawm dua.
Wood Mackenzie tau taw qhia tias nrog kev nce siab hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sib txawv, Tebchaws Europe muaj plaub txoj hauv kev rau kev ntsuas kev ua haujlwm ntawm daim phiaj: pumped hydro, natural gas peaking power plant.Rory McCarthy, lub koom haum tus thawj kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, tau hais tias, "Rau cov tshuab hluav taws xob niaj hnub no, cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tuaj yeem ua tiav cov hluav taws xob tag nrho hauv ob feeb, thiab tuaj yeem ua haujlwm ntawm ib feem ntawm kev ua haujlwm tau zoo thiab tuaj yeem muab lub zog rau lub sijhawm tsis muaj kev txwv tsis tu ncua.Lub hauv paus yog ib qho kev tsis cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv roj ntsha. "
Tab sis los ntawm 2030, roj teeb lub zog cia yuav dhau los ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide uas yog qhov kev xaiv pheej yig tshaj plaws rau kev sib npaug ntawm Europe daim phiaj.Lub peev xwm cia hluav taws xob thoob plaws txhua qhov chaw hauv Tebchaws Europe yuav tsum loj hlob los ntawm 3GW tam sim no (tsis suav nrog cov twj siv dej) mus rau 26GW los ntawm 2030 thiab 89GW los ntawm 2040. McCarthy tau sau tseg tias los ntawm 2040, Tebchaws Europe tuaj yeem muaj 320GWh ntawm lub zog cia muaj peev xwm sib npaug ntawm lub zog hluav taws xob. .Feem ntau ntawm lawv yuav los ntawm cov neeg siv-sab roj teeb lub zog cia tshuab.McCarthy tau hais tias "Cov nqi roj thiab thee hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob kuj tseem yuav nce ntxiv, thiab cov kev cai net-zero emissions yuav kawg lub hom phiaj ntawm decarbonisation ntawm tag nrho cov kev pabcuam hauv khw hluav taws xob," McCarthy tau hais.
Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas lub tuam txhab Bloomberg New Energy Finance ib zaug tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ntsuam xyuas, uas tau taw qhia tias: Hauv Tebchaws Meskas, raws li cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob hnub ci txuas ntxiv mus txuas ntxiv thiab noj cov sijhawm ua haujlwm ntawm cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob hluav taws xob, cov roj hluav taws xob hluav taws xob yuav tsum rov pib dua thiab kaw ntau zaus.Qhov no ua rau lawv cov nqi khiav lag luam nce ntxiv vim qhov xav tau roj thiab hnav thiab tsim kua muag.
Tam sim no, thaum tus nqi ntawm cov pa roj carbon monoxide siab dhau lawm, cov tub ua lag luam yuav muaj kev paub ntau dua hauv kev txiav txim siab seb puas yuav hloov txoj kev tsim hluav taws xob tshiab kom tsis txhob muaj teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom siab.
Tau kawg, exporters ntawm natural gas tsis kam pom qhov xwm txheej no mus ntxiv.Lawv kuj tseem yuav nrhiav txoj hauv kev los ua kom cov nqi roj ntau dua li qhov tsis txaus ntseeg siab, txwv tsis pub xa cov pa roj carbon monoxide yuav dhau los ua teeb meem thaum muaj teeb meem ntawm kev lag luam thiab lub zog tso tseg.
Piv nrog rau thawj theem ntawm Russia-Ukraine tsis sib haum xeeb hauv 2014 (Lub Ib Hlis 19, 2014 txog Lub Peb Hlis 20, 2014), nyob rau hauv kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev loj, cov khoom muag tau nce siab, siab li 7.6%.Tus nqi ntawm cov roj crude tau nce los ntawm 4.2%, thiab tus nqi ntawm kub nce los ntawm 6.1% (los ntawm Haitong Securities.) Cov nqi roj av txuas ntxiv tseem yuav ua rau kev siv hluav taws xob tsheb, tsheb huv si, thiab lwm yam tseem ceeb dua.
Hais txog kev txhim kho yav tom ntej ntawm lub zog tshiab, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev lag luam photovoltaic, xyoo no yuav txhim kho ntxiv mus.Thaum Lub Ob Hlis 23, cov koom haum cuam tshuam tau kwv yees tias lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab hauv 2022 tuaj yeem nce mus rau ntau dua 75GW, uas yog kwv yees li 75-90GW.Tus nqi no yog piv nrog cov ntaub ntawv ntawm National Energy Administration - lub peev xwm photovoltaic tshiab ntawm lub teb chaws hauv 2021 yuav yog li ntawm 55GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 36% -64%.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws kwv yees tias txij xyoo 2022 txog 2025, kuv lub teb chaws txhua xyoo tshiab photovoltaic nruab peev yuav ncav cuag 83-99GW.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology, xyoo 2021, kuv lub teb chaws photovoltaic ntau lawm ntawm polysilicon, silicon wafers, hlwb, thiab modules yuav ncav cuag 505,000 tons, 227GW, 198GW, thiab 182GW, feem, nce 27.5%, 40.6%. 46.9%, thiab 46.1% xyoo-rau-xyoo.Kev xa tawm txhua xyoo ntawm cov khoom photovoltaic tshaj 28.4 billion US dollars.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb tshiab tshaj plaws ntawm CITIC Kev Tsim Kho Kev Lag Luam, lub peev xwm hauv tsev photovoltaic ntsia tau rau lub Ib Hlis 2022 tau tshaj qhov kev cia siab, thiab cov tshiab photovoltaic ntsia lub peev xwm hauv lub teb chaws tau tshaj 7GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 200%.Ntawm lawv, lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob faib hluav taws xob yog 4.5GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 250%;Lub peev xwm tshiab nruab nrab ntawm lub hauv paus photovoltaics yog 2.5GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 150%.Upstream silicon cov ntaub ntawv, silicon wafers, downstream roj teeb, modules, raws li zoo raws li inverters thiab auxiliary cov ntaub ntawv, tag nrho cov kev sib txuas nyob rau hauv kev lag luam saw feem ntau yog tag nrho ntawm kev txiav txim, thiab kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi tsis poob tab sis nce.Xyoo no cov tsoos off-season tej zaum yuav "tsis qaug zog".
Sau qhov no, peb cia siab tias cov neeg ntawm Ukraine tuaj yeem tiv thaiv lawv tus kheej thiab lawv tsev neeg, siv lub sijhawm tshwj xeeb no kom nyab xeeb, thiab rov qab los lossis nrhiav lub tsev nyob kaj siab lug sai li sai tau.
Lub sij hawm xa tuaj: Mar-12-2022